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Solar PV's Batting Woes and Cricket Lessons for Grid Stability

In the challenging game of renewable energy integration, solar power is currently facing a formidable opponent on the field: the Duck Curve. This event describes a very specific daily cycle in electricity supply and demand. During the mid-day hours, immense surges of solar energy flood the transmission lines. This slashes the "net demand" (the total electricity load minus renewable generation), creating a deep, sagging dip that visually resembles a duck's belly.

The real operational challenge arrives as dusk approaches. As the sun sets and solar generation rapidly drops to zero, the evening demand for electricity simultaneously spikes as residential cooling, lighting, and appliances switch on. This requires a massive, near-vertical upward power ramp-up, the duck's neck.

The Duck Curve Representation: India's Daily Grid Challenge

The Pitch Conditions: India's Deepening Duck

By May 2026, with India’s installed solar capacity reaching 157.05 GW, this curve has evolved into an urgent, nationwide grid-stability challenge, demanding immediate strategic intervention.

To understand the modern grid’s daily struggle, picture a typical matchday in a gripping Day-Night Test match where the playing team is the Indian energy grid, the pitch conditions represent the time of day, and the batsman is solar power:

• The Afternoon Session (11 AM – 3 PM): The pitch conditions are amazing under the bright sun, there is not much dew, and the ball comes right onto the bat. The opening batsman smashes boundaries and scores good amounts of runs. Similarly, during peak sunshine hours, solar is out in the middle, generating huge amounts of clean energy with incredible ease.
• The Twilight Session (5 PM – 6 PM): As evening approaches, the dreaded twilight session begins. The pitch conditions change, dew builds up, the ball starts swinging under the lights, and the set batsman gets out. The new batsman walking in also goes for an infamous duck, just as the solar output suddenly crashes to zero.
• • The Panicked Dugout: The coaches in the dugout are desperate to stop the collapse and survive the hostile evening conditions. They send out a "Nightwatchman", a lower-order bowler sent in strictly to defend the wicket and safely navigate the tough spell until the end of the day's play. Similarly, grid operators are suddenly forced to scramble to cover the immense supply shortfall. They rely on defensive solutions, turning on fast-acting backup gas plants or forcing older coal power plants to ramp up rapidly just to protect the grid from collapsing.

In cricket, a sudden batting collapse puts immense pressure on the rest of the team; in the power sector, an unmanaged duck curve risks local power cuts, unstable voltage, and wasting huge amounts of clean energy.

The real test occurs after sunset. India's peak net load generally occurs around 8 PM during the summer. India's peak power demand reached an all-time high of 256.1 GW on April 25, 2026. This record was repeatedly broken shortly after, hitting a fresh peak of 270.8 GW on May 21, 2026.

The rapid shift in generation sources is staggering. During the mid-day peak, solar provides a huge chunk of the nation's electricity. But by 8 PM, the grid has to lean heavily on thermal power to compensate for the lost solar generation. This requires sudden ramp-ups from older thermal plants, causing immense physical stress, boiler tube leakages, and inefficient fuel consumption for coal units that were originally designed to run at a steady pace.

The "Raat Baki" Problem: The Long Night Innings

While the sun sets, the heat does not. A major reason, the evening demand ramp-up is so severe in India is due to the stubborn persistence of high night-time temperatures. To describe this grid operator's nightmare, energy analysts often use the famous Bollywood phrase, ‘raat baki’ (the night is still to come).

In many parts of the world, power demand drops significantly deep in the night as the city sleeps. However, in India, while the demand does drop from its huge evening peak, the grid still faces a heavy baseload requirement throughout the night. The grid does not get a break to rest and recover; it has to keep fielding hard all night long without its star solar player.

Because night-time temperatures remain high, people keep their air conditioners running constantly. On hot summer nights, air conditioning can account for up to one-third of total power consumption. To meet this relentless cooling demand on May 21, coal plants had to provide 45 GW of ramping flexibility, eventually reaching nearly 92% of their available capacity at peak output.

The Middle Order: Strategies to Flatten the Curve

Cricket legend Sachin Tendulkar boasts the unparalleled record of scoring 100 international centuries across formats. Yet, out of the hundred 100s that Sachin Tendulkar scored, India won only 53 matches. A century from the greatest batter of the generation was often necessary, but it was rarely sufficient. Matches are not won by a single explosive innings; they are won by a resilient system. An aggressive opener may provide momentum, but victories are secured by a dependable middle order that absorbs pressure, finishers who adapt to changing situations, bowlers who attack in different phases, and fielders who convert half-chances into breakthroughs.

The recently concluded IPL 2026 season offered a compelling illustration of this principle. Royal Challengers Bengaluru's (RCB) title-winning campaign was not built around a single dominant performer. They won the tournament without producing the Orange Cap holder or the Purple Cap holder. Their success came from contributions spread across the squad. While Virat Kohli remained the undisputed face of the franchise, he was not carrying the team single-handedly. In their 14 league matches, RCB had 8 different players win the Player of the Match award. Different players stepped up in different moments, allowing RCB to absorb failures, adapt to conditions, and sustain performance across the season.

Power systems operate much the same way. Relying solely on one dominant technology is akin to expecting Sachin to win every match on his own. Solar power may play the role of the prolific run-scorer, but grid stability depends on a strong middle order of complementary technologies.

• Battery Storage (The Explosive Finisher): Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) act as the explosive finisher, stepping in exactly when needed to close out the game. A common concern is that batteries only hold charge for a few hours, making them useless for an all-night power struggle. However, we do not need batteries to power the entire night. We just need them to "shave the peak". If large battery banks can release their stored solar energy exactly between 7 PM and 10 PM, it stops the demand from spiking so sharply. This gives the coal plants the breathing room they need to ramp up slowly and safely. To secure this crucial evening window, India is preparing for a massive scale-up. As of May 2026, India has about 7.5 GWh of operational BESS capacity. However, to meet our grid requirements, CEA’s National Generation Adequacy Plan projects that the country will require 80 GW (321 GWh) of BESS capacity by 2035-36.
• Pumped Storage Projects (The Unshakeable Anchor): Pumped Storage Projects (PSP) act as the reliable, heavy-duty anchor in this critical innings. During the sunny mid-day hours when solar energy floods the grid, the excess, cheap power is used to pump millions of gallons of water from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher one. When the evening peak hits, that stored water is released back down through massive hydro turbines to generate steady, dispatchable electricity. As of May 2026, India has 7.43 GW capacity of operational pumped storage projects. With India's total pumped storage potential now assessed at 267 GW, the CEA has laid out a roadmap to achieve over 100 GW of operational PSP capacity by 2035-36. This proven, high-inertia technology provides the exact type of long-duration, grid-scale balancing required to smooth out the daily transition between peak solar generation and the heavy evening load.
• Hybrid Plants (The Solid Partnership): Hybrid renewable plants represent the ultimate partnership at the crease, combining distinct generation profiles to stabilize the overall run rate. By strategically pairing solar panels with wind turbines, grid operators achieve a significantly flatter and far more consistent generation graph. Wind generation frequently picks up momentum in the late afternoon and stretches into the night, perfectly compensating for the exact moment when solar begins its steep decline. India stands firmly as the largest wind energy market in the world outside of China, thereby laying the foundation for this strategy.
• Demand Response (Rotating the Strike): Instead of just trying to change the supply of electricity, grid operators are now actively trying to change the demand, a tactic similar to rotating the strike to keep the bowlers off balance. Through the implementation of Time of Day (ToD) tariffs, commercial and industrial consumers are financially incentivized to shift their heaviest energy usage away from the evening peak to the mid-day solar hours. While this is not yet prevalent in India, advanced economies have been using this strategy successfully for quite some time. By shifting heavy loads like agricultural water pumps to run on dedicated solar lines between 11 AM to 3 PM, the grid can effortlessly absorb the daytime surplus while shaving down the dangerous evening peak.

Strategic Briefing: Conquering the Duck Curve for Solar PV Scale-Up

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects that India's total installed power capacity requirement will reach 1121 GW by 2035-36. Within this blueprint, solar power is expected to dominate the landscape by accounting for 509 GW (45%), serving as the primary backbone of the nation's energy transition. However, installing millions of panels is only the first phase of the match. The challenge is no longer about simply adding gross capacity; it is about adding flexibility.

To systematically manage the duck curve at this unprecedented scale, the focus has already shifted from basic generation to firm, dispatchable power. The traditional solar contract, which simply paid for all power generated without considering the grid requirements, is becoming outdated. State entities and procurement agencies are now launching tenders that require developers to deliver a guaranteed, fixed block of "Round-the-Clock" (RTC) or peak evening power. This forces the market to naturally integrate storage solutions and hybrid generation at the project level before the electricity ever touches the transmission lines.

The Long Innings: Securing the Grid's Future

Ultimately, the national grid does not simply need more solar power; it desperately needs more usable solar hours. India has successfully spent the last decade building a world-class batting lineup by pushing its solar capacity to 157.05 GW. To successfully capture and use this power, the immediate priority must be scaling up storage. By unlocking its 267 GW pumped hydro potential to achieve the 100 GW target by 2035-36 and aggressively expanding battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity to 80 GW by 2035-36, India can turn its mid-day solar peaks into reliable, round-the-clock supply.

However, storing energy is only part of the equation. The true test lies in physical power lines, as slower-moving networks become the primary evacuation bottleneck. This mismatch is a serious operational risk; grid constraints forced India to curtail 300 GWh of clean energy in the first quarter of 2026 alone, accounting for two-thirds of all renewable wastage. To address this, India plans INR 9 trillion transmission upgrade by 2032. As the country scales towards its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) systems remain critical for connecting remote projects with consumption centers.

Grid stability is a team effort. This is being achieved by mandating power producers to bundle their projects with battery or pumped-storage systems from the outset, and by shifting to contracts that mandate a Round-the-Clock (RTC) supply of electricity rather than just daytime generation. Securing the energy transition is not just about surviving the mid-day dip; it is about building a robust, flexible grid with the foresight and planning required to ensure long-term stability by playing a long, victorious innings for the nation.

Authored by
Varun Jain and Sandeepan Roy (Credit Analyst)
SBI CHAKRA Centre of Excellence