Advanced Cell Chemistry Battery Newsletter - COE Chakra

Li-ion's share of the world

The global evolution of Lithium-Ion batteries: from lab breakthrough to clean energy powerhouse – with special focus on EV battery market.

Research and Development:

Lithium-ion batteries (LIB) have become an integral part of our daily lives. From powering our smartphones, laptop computers, other portable consumer electronics to propelling electric vehicles, these compact energy storage solutions have revolutionized the way we live and work. Their significant use is also seen for grid-scale energy storage, as well as military and aerospace applications.

The history of lithium batteries dates to the early 20th century when researchers first began experimenting with lithium as an anode material. However, they remained largely dormant due to safety concerns and technological limitations. It wasn’t until the 1970-80s that lithium batteries found their way into commercial applications. Sir M Stanley Whittingham, a British - American chemist, in 1976, while he was working as a research scientist in Exxon (later ExxonMobil), created the first rechargeable LIB. It was based on a Titanium disulfide cathode and a Lithium - Aluminium anode, suffered from safety problems and hence was never commercialized. However, in 1980, the work of Dr.John B Goodenough (a material scientist, solid state physicist and professor at University of Texas), who developed Lithium-Cobalt oxide as a cathode material, vastly improved the battery’s energy density and overall performance, and laid the foundation for the commercialization of LIBs. Further, in 1985, Dr.Akira Yoshino (a Japanese Chemist), at Asahi Kasei Corporation, made a prototype of the modern LIB, using a graphite anode. The release of the first commercially successful LIB by ‘Sony’ in 1991, which utilized the above key developments, marked a turning point. The technology rapidly found its way into laptops, cell phones, and various portable devices, forever changing the way we live and work. The landmark contributions by the above three scientists earned them the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2019, for development of Lithium-ion batteries.

Market:

LIBs liberated devices from power cords. Smartphones slimmed from 20mm to 7mm, laptop endurance stretched from 2 to 20 hours, and wearables like TWS earbuds became possible. As per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the global LIB demand exceeded 1.50 TWh for the first time, in 2025 (~ 1.59 TWh). Global EV sales exceeded 20 million in 2025, accounting for over 20% of global new car sales, representing approx. 75% of all global lithium-ion battery demand. Further, as per pvMagazine, the demand from stationary storage batteries (BESS), for grid scale, C&I and other applications, in 2025 exceeded 300 GWh; and International Energy Agency estimates the global consumer electronics to be now demanding over 100 GWh of lithium batteries yearly. According to forecasts by American research and advisory firm Gartner Inc., by the end of 2026, 116 million EVs - passenger cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks - are expected to be on the road around the globe. The global battery market is growing steadily and is expected to reach $ 330 billion by 2030 as per International Energy Agency estimates.

Value chain and Tech:

The battery manufacturing value chain can be divided into 4 stages.

A. The upstream stage consisting of mining & refining of raw material / critical minerals – mainly Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese and Graphite;

B. The midstream stage where the purified raw materials and others are used to manufacture the battery components (viz., Anode, Cathode, Electrolyte and Separators);

C. The downstream stage where battery cells are manufactured with the above components, assembled suitably to form modules and battery packs, which are integrated into EVs, stationary applications and other;

D. ‘End of life’ stage when batteries no longer serve their original purpose and can be reused or recycled. The technological evolution of batteries, predominantly witnessed on the cathode front over the last 2 decades, has led to development of two dominant battery chemistries – Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP).

Supply chain and Manufacturing capacity development:

Much of the world’s Cobalt is in the Democratic Republic of the Congo while Lithium is concentrated in South America (Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia known as ‘lithium triangle’) and Australia. Indonesia is home to half the world’s mined nickel and Morocco has the largest reserves of phosphate. The evolution of lithium and cobalt mining parallels the transformation of battery technology. China has consolidated control of global refining and cathode precursor production, securing majority of upstream cobalt assets and lithium refining capabilities. With the rise of EVs, demand for both lithium and cobalt surged. As per Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 (IEA), between 2015 and 2020, global cobalt demand grew 1.5x, driven largely by NMC battery demand. This led to price spikes, supply chain bottlenecks, and increased pressure to find cobalt-light or cobalt-free chemistries. Manufacturers began shifting towards high-nickel NMC cathodes and LFP designs to reduce cobalt dependence.

Japan and South Korea were the original global leaders in mass production of LIBs, by virtue of a thriving consumer electronics manufacturing industry in the two countries. Panasonic (Japan), LG Chem, and Samsung SDI (S. Korea) are the global players who led the initial global manufacturing drive, anchored on NMC batteries. However, China, through aggressive R&D efforts and a push to commercialise EVs through govt support in the form of consumer subsidies and an enabling business environment for EV makers, paced ahead to become the global leader in battery manufacturing. This has supported the rise of giant manufacturers such as CATL and BYD. CATL overtook Japan’s Panasonic as the world’s largest battery manufacturer way back in 2017 and has retained the position till date (present global market share of over 39% as per 2025 CATL Annual report). According to IEA, China produces over 75% of all the LIBs sold in the world today. The Chinese battery ecosystem covers all steps of the supply chain, from mineral mining and refining to the production of battery manufacturing equipment, precursors and other components, as well as final production of batteries and EVs. Chinese producers have honed LFP batteries, which now cover nearly half the global EV market and are about 30% less expensive than their main competitor NMC batteries. Europe is also making all-out efforts to build a competitive battery industry though presently, production costs in the region are about 50% higher than China. However, major share of the investments in Europe are coming from Korean and Chinese manufacturers. Korean producers supplied over 15% of the global EV battery demand in 2025, while Japanese producers covered nearly 4%. In the US, battery manufacturing capacity has doubled since 2022 following implementation of tax credits for producers, reaching over 200 GWh by 2025.

After years of investment, the global battery manufacturing capacity (Gigafactory capacity) has reached 4.8 TWh in 2025. As per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the 2030 gigafactory pipeline is currently over 10 TWh, with 77% of this owned by Chinese companies. The overcapacity in cell manufacturing, economies of scale, lower metal and component costs, adoption of LFP batteries and slower growth in EV sales has caused LIB pack level prices (2025 global avg.) to decline by 8% from 2024 to a record low of $108/kWh. As per BloombergNEF report, regionally, China recorded the lowest average battery pack prices at $84/kWh, while the costs in North America and Europe are 44% and 56% higher, respectively. EVs have reportedly achieved price parity with combustion vehicles in China, as $100/kWh is globally perceived as the threshold battery price for the same.

India Story:

Until 2015, India relied almost entirely on imported lithium-ion cells with local players focused on pack assembly for consumer electronics and telecom. Between 2016 and 2020, the Indian market for LIB saw the rise of battery pack assemblers as EV and Renewable energy demand took off. As per World Resources Institute (WRI India), annual demand increased from 3 GWh in 2020 to nearly 11 GWh in 2022, with 80% of demand arising from EVs. The government introduced PLI Scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cells, initially targeting 50 GWh of domestic cell manufacturing. Presently, projects with a cumulative cell manufacturing capacity of 100+ GWh has been announced in India, promoted by players like TATA Agratas, Reliance Industries, Amara Raja, Exide, Ola among others. As per pvMagazine, the total installed capacity for LIB cell mfg. in the country is set to reach ~ 160 GWh by 2030. EVs are expected to account for over 80% of demand growth. With focused policy support, the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity in India is also expected to reach ~200 GWh by 2030.

Days ahead:

Despite the rapid decrease in battery prices and continued innovation, the level of concentration in battery supply chain has raised security concerns among governments in recent years. China’s recent export controls (temporarily suspended till November 2026) covering high-energy lithium-ion cells and packs, advanced cathode materials and manufacturing equipment, artificial graphite anode materials, and the technologies to make them, as well as key production equipment and know-how, significantly affect global battery supply chain for EVs and energy storage. To establish a sustainable battery ecosystem, India needs to address supply chain gaps and integrate circularity throughout various stages of the LIB supply chain. Additionally, strong research and innovation support is also imperative for the industry, so that we do not lose out on the future market in evolving prominent battery technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state batteries, as well as emerging prominent long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies.